Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 070818
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT... BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND... PROVIDING A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURE FROM THE 0Z KILN SOUNDING WAS 16 DEGREES C
WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATED BY MODELS YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING 850 TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 16 DEGREES C
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
THEY LOOK TO BE FIRING OFF OF A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
THAT IS FORECASTED TO FORM. ALSO TOOK A LOOK AT INSTABILITY AND
HIGHER VALUES ARE OFF TO THE WEST AS WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE WESTERN ZONES. BOTH GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW EVIDENCE OF THE RIDGING THOUGH
WITH A INVERSION AROUND 700 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO
PUSH EAST. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. 850 TEMPS AGAIN APPEAR TO MAX
OUT AROUND 16 DEGREES C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK VERY SIMILAR
FOR FRIDAY AS THURSDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT AND GET PICKED UP IN THE MAIN FLOW. THE AREA STILL
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TRANSITION ZONE THOUGH AS A COASTAL LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GFS NUDGING THE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIP ONLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. EVEN
IN THE GFS THE BEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 APPEARS TO OCCUR LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT WITH THE TRENDS THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SLOWLY FOR SATURDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST PUTTING
THE AREA IN THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING THE FIRST GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SUNDAY
DURING THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE SHORTWAVE GOES SUNDAY WILL
OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE EAST. THE REGION WILL FALL IN A WEAK RRQ ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD PVA MOVING OVERHEAD. GFS IS FORECASTING PWATS AROUND
1.6".

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK COOL FOR THE AREA AS 850 TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 0 DEGREES C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED GRIDS DOWN. BELOW
NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE MAY SEE A FEW AC DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME THIS
MORNING BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH
LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT KLUK WHERE SOME IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT
IT WILL STILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY GIVEN
SOME DEVELOPING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BELOW IS A TABLE OF FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE
FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES ALONG WITH THE CORRESPONDING RECORDS FOR 5/7.

SITE                        FORECAST HIGH    RECORD HIGH (YEAR)
CITY OF CINCINNATI (KCVG)        87               89 (1940)
CITY OF COLUMBUS (KCMH)          86               87 (1936)
CITY OF DAYTON (KDAY)            86               87 (1897/1926)

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL
CLIMATE...HAINES





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