Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 272026
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST IS IN THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MID WEEK AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL MUCH
OF THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...LEAVING
TEMPERATURES AS THE MAIN FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AS
WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. THIS LEAVES MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND FROST AS A CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES ARE BORDERLINE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A PATCHY FROST MENTION AND
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO
THE REGION MID WEEK. SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY EXISTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS
STARTING THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL TREND IS FOR COOL AND SHOWERY TROUGH
TO DEPART THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THAT
FLATTENS OUT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND GRADUALLY PUSH AND TUG A SURFACE FRONT BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STARTING THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEPARTING TROUGH COMES A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BUT OVERALL MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST AND LITTLE CYCLONIC FLOW LEFT
SUGGESTING RAINS SHOULD HAVE ENDED. MIN TEMPS 40-45 STILL LOOK
OK.

FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO DRY AND SUNNY DAY BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO MID AND UPPER
60 MAX TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS COME INTO
PLAY BUT ALL SHOW SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND OF BRINGING SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE FLATTENING RIDGE IN NW UPPER FLOW WHILE
INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX AT THE SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST. RESULT
WILL BE PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDER INTERSPERSED BETWEEN DRY AND SOMEWHAT SUNNIER
PERIODS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SUNDAY WITH WARM FRONTAL NORTHWARD
PUSH FOLLOWED BY MONDAY COLD FRONT APPROACH TO BE THE BETTER THREAT
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

AREA OF VFR CEILINGS AROUND 045 HAVE PUSHED INTO THE KIND VICINITY.
CLOUDS LOOK MORE LAYERED THAN CELLULAR BASED ON SATELLITE...SO THESE
CEILINGS MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU THROUGH 00Z.

NORTH WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL DROP
TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z AND BECOME NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...MK/JAS

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