Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 040238
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES SITS EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A LT SELY FLOW
THIS EVENING. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLR ACRS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT STRATOCU OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA...LOWER 60S ACRS SE TX. OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS...FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATE IS EXPECTED.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

AVIATION...REGION REMAINS ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPROACH OF
EASTERLY WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THTE AND PWATS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THOUGH...NO
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. CONTINUED VFR.

AP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BLOCKY PATTER SET TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH MEAN
TROFS OVER THE WRN CONUS AND BAHAMAS/WRN ATLANTIC...AND A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NE TWD THE MID ATLANTIC. IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED GENERALLY OFF
TO THE EAST...WITH QUASI-PERSISTENT TROFINESS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RESULTING
IN LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS.

THE ONE EXCEPTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROF...EASILY IDENTIFIED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
FL PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEST TO
WNW...TRAVERSING THE REGION TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ALONG
WITH A GENERALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION...THIS WAVE WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT/FORCING MECHANISM
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THIS FEATURE GETS WEST OF US ON TUE...BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL
RESIDE OVER EAST TEXAS AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN LA JUST EAST OF
THE SABINE RIVER. SMALL CHANCES GENERALLY AREAWIDE TUE AND
WED...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE RESTRICTED THU AND FRI AS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD BUILDS A BIT. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN OUT ON
SAT AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT FROM THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH AT LEAST SMALL AREAWIDE POPS RETURNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS RUNNING GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

13

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND
A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  81  64  82 /  10  20  20  20
LCH  61  81  67  81 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  60  80  65  82 /  10  30  20  10
BPT  64  81  68  81 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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