Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 191747
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS.
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP IN THIS CLEAR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AND SOME WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG MENTION AND TO HIGHLIGHT BETTER CHANCES
OF JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING...VERSUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. CURRENTLY SEEING WEAK AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH AR...WITH ONLY POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER FAR SE AT. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN WESTERN KS AND NEAR THE PANHANDLES OF TX AND
OK. OVERALL FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL TIMING OF BEST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE EARLY
EVENING FOR LINE OF STORMS TO FORM AROUND 5 TO 8 PM IN WESTERN
AR...THEN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. ANALYSIS STILL HAS MAIN SEVERE
STORM THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LOWER THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. WIND PROFILES NOT SHOWING MUCH VEERING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST ATMOSPHERE...WHILE CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY (LI
TO -5 T0 -7 AND CAPE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG)...AND MOISTURE AND LIFT. BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED. SE AR MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADO IN THE END. OTHERWISE SEEING CLEARING SKIES OVER SE AR AND
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP INSTABILITY. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL FINE TUNE SOME ELEMENTS WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY
18Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...GENERALLY AFTER 00Z AND
MOVING EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 6Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS NOT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT HIGHER RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/HRRR/WRF ALL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
WILL BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BASICALLY BISECTING THE
NATION IN HALF WITH RIDGING ALONG BOTH COASTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM HAS MUCH COOLER AIR OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL MOVE
OVER WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND. AS TEMPERATURES DROP
UPSTAIRS AND CLIMB DOWNSTAIRS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP.

SEVERAL WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING UNTIL WHAT LIKELY BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY EXITING THE REGION AROUND THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR.

TROF PULLS OUT MONDAY WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
WITH PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A
WEAK BOUNDARY OR TWO WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE TO END
THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES POPS.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TODAY WITH COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. WILL FOLLOW THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS CLOSELY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM STARTS WITH A CLOSED LOW TO SW OF CALIFORNIA AND ARKANSAS
UNDER NW FLOW...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
ARKANSAS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY BE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT THIS FAR OUT
TENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM THE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. ECMWF MOVES IT THROUGH THE
REGION A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODELS AND LOW END CHANCE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  67  45  68 /  80  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         54  71  47  73 /  70  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       47  64  43  65 /  70  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  69  47  71 /  60  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  70  48  71 /  70  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     56  70  49  72 /  70  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  68  45  70 /  40  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  65  43  67 /  70  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        53  67  46  69 /  70  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     55  69  48  71 /  70  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  68  45  69 /  60  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         53  68  46  70 /  70  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      55  68  48  70 /  70  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




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