Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 270520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY
SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA IS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT AMT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.