Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 030733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



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