Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 191947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING INTO NE GULF AND
NORTH FL HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY AND HRRR/WRF MODELS INDICATE
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER SOME PRECIP/EMBEDDED STORM
ACTIVITY FROM THIS BAND MAY REACH LAKE COUNTY TOWARD SUNSET. AHEAD
OF THIS LINE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISO/SCT STORMS FORMING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ABLE
TO HOLD ON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AT SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW INTO LATE DAY MAY PUSH WHAT SEA
BREEZE REMAINS OFFSHORE. IF SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED
INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO
THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. IF ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DO
OCCUR ISO STRONG STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN
GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM AND TO A DEGREE THE
WRF SHOW THIS BAND DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH AND PUSHING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION INTO THE AFT WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/MOISTURE SOUTH OF ORLANDO. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 50-60 PERCENT.
SOME STRONG TO ISO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN
OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TUE...A COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL BRINGING SOME
DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TO 20
PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES 40 TO 50 PERCENT FROM
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST.

REST OF WEEK (PREVIOUS)...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS
WEAKENING OVER THE NE GULF. THIS BAND MAY REACH AREAS WEST OF I-4
TOWARD SUNSET...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS MAINLY AT
KLEE. CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING/PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO LATE EVENING
WITH MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS INTO
THE AFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...S/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE W/SW
INTO LATE MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFT/EVE...
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THE FL PENINSULA TUE SO
WIND FLOW WILL BE W/NW 10 KNOTS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MID WEEK WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  68  80 /  40  40  20  20
MCO  70  87  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
MLB  71  87  70  82 /  40  60  30  30
VRB  70  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50
LEE  70  84  68  82 /  20  50  20  20
SFB  70  85  69  83 /  30  50  20  20
ORL  71  86  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
FPR  69  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY


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