Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 042031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
EAST TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 6 AND 10Z TONIGHT.

ALOFT...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CLOSED LOW WELL UP IN EASTERN CANADA MOVES EAST.

LEFTOVER SEA BREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO A GENERAL SW FLOW...LIGHTENING
IN TIME TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING ARW AND WRF-NMM SHOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING AS THEY NEAR THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. NCEP MODELS INCLUDING SREF MEAN INDICATE LIGHT
QPF VIA WEAKENING SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE 10Z TONIGHT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MINIMAL POPS FOR NW ZONES AS THEY NEAR THE AREA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S IN AND AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT 500-
700 HPA TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 12Z NAM.

ANY MORNING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NAM...WRF-NMM SHOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN PA RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE
EARLY IN THE DAY APPROACHING OUR REGION LATE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM NE NJ/NYC
SOUTHWARD. ECMWF/GFS AND SREF MEAN SUPPORT LESS COVERAGE WITH LOWER
POPS. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RAISING POPS SLIGHTLY BUT CAPPING THEM IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HIGHEST POPS SW ZONES...AND LOWEST NE. THIS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...IF NOT A LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT.

DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OR PASS SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
PUSH THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
READINGS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT STILL EXPECT 80 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE WATER...WITH NEAR 70 OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
WITH THE FRONT IN OUR PROXIMITY...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...SO
LESS DISPARITY IN TEMPS FROM WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY.

TUESDAY LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE MORNING...AND THEN CONDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S...WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY FRIDAY. WITH
A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...RESULTING
IN COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOW PRES SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAGE TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CAP POPS AT LOW CHANCE
FOR NOW...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AND
START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.

STRONGER LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE IN PROGRESS AT NYC METROS
AND KISP/KHPN...WITH BRISK SW WINDS AT KSWF AS WELL. SEA BREEZES AT
KBDR/KGON HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN SO INTO
EARLY EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BACK SW 5-
10 KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT W FROM NYC METRO TERMINALS
NORTH/WEST AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION AND THEN STALLS.

LLWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT KISP/KGON...WITH SW FLOW INCREASING TO 45
KT AROUND 1 KFT AGL. LOW CHANCE OF NYC METRO SEEING THIS FROM LATE
EVENING ON AS WELL.

BKN VFR CIGS ARRIVE TUE MORNING WITH THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY IN SCT SHOWERS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHED AMD EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE FOR LLWS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHED AMD EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE FOR LLWS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHED AMD EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHED AMD EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHED AMD EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHED AMD EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE.
.LATE TUE NIGHT-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED...AND NEARSHORE GUSTS ALONG THE OCEAN
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND WILL LIKELY APPROACH 25 KTS
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III BUILD TO 5 FT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHTEN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY...AND SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHTEN AND WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE N/NE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SW WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WARRANTS
RED FLAG WARNING INTO THE EVENING WESTERN ZONES. SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ELSEWHERE FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS.

WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE...SO DO NOT
FORESEE ANY FIRE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH HIGH PRES AND A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK...CAN EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDS DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEA BREEZES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY EXPECT FROM 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FROM SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION. IF THIS DOES OCCUR OVER AN AREA...THEN LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS
IS A LOW PROBABILITY THOUGH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS HAVE BEGUN AND RETURN
TO SERVICE SHOULD OCCUR SOON.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW
EQUIPMENT...



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