Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 031749
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

REMAIN FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRY SIDE...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACIANS TODAY WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
AN UPPER RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS AND
WARMING AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN TOUCH THE 80
DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DECREASING CONFIDENCE AS NEXT
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BREAKING DOWN A BIT TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WEAKENING IN COMBINATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST DIURNAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME NOTHING APPEARS TO BE OVERLY ZEALOUS WITH INSTABILITY.
CAPES SEEM TO BE DROPPING ABOUT 30% TO AROUND 1K J/KG2 DOWN FROM
1500 YESTERDAY. LI`S NEGATIVE SLIGHTLY AND PW`S EXCEEDING 1 INCH.
HOWEVER THE SOUNDING DOES NOT HAVE AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE.
SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANY STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT A
ORGANIZED SEVERE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THAT I WILL TRY TO RESTRICT TO AFTN
ONLY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. S TO SSW WINDS AOB
10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO
AOB 6 KTS AFTER 00Z AND INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...BP2



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