Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 061403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT COOL FRONT
AT 13Z FROM NORTHERN VA THROUGH CENTRAL DE INTO EXTREME S NJ MAY
SETTLE A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, ESPECIALLY DE WHERE
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. 1330Z RADAR REALITY AND A PREPONDERANCE OF
MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE FCST SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM
NEAR PHILADELPHIA NORTH. THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD BE N OF I-78 WHERE POPS WERE RAISED ANOTHER 20 PCT
TO CATEGORICAL. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS WEAK 850MB WAA BENEATH
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SCT VCNTY KPHL BUT HEAVIER WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS S OF THE FRONT AND IN THE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PWAT OF ~1.3 INCHES.

TSTMS THIS MORNING WEST OF KCXY AT 1330Z SHOULD DIE OUT AS THEY
TRY TO ENTER THE KRDG AREA.

THIS AFTN...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH NORTH AND THEN WE WATCH
FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N MD AND POSSIBLY LEAK INTO MD`S
E SHORE LATE IN THE DAY.

NOT SURE IF ANYONE NOTICED YDYS MAX TEMP AT KACY WAS 1F SHORT OF
THE RECORD FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD CLOSER, AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW IT MUCH LESS DEFINED
AND REALLY NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR OUR REGION.

THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE THINK IT SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A REXY LOOKING BLOCK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH SPLIT FLOW BEING THE MAIN PLAYER.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN UP OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL AFFECT THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM...MONDAY ONWARD.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HAVE GONE DRY BOTH DAYS WITH THE
OFFSHORE RIDGE`S AXIS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LACK OF A DEFINED
LIFTING MECHANISM. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION, THOUGH NOT A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE BUT DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER-50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS ...LOW-80S.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...EVEN WITH A DECENT SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AROUND THE REGION, THE SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL/SUB-
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GIVES SOME PAUSE FOR CONCERN
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
BOTH DAYS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR
AN ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGES FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW VEERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. ONCE
AGAIN HAVE PEGGED OUR WESTERN ZONES, WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIDGES FOR CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN ZONES
EACH MORNING WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAMP MARINE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-80S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES...THERE WILL BE
GREATER MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. GIVEN A SLOW
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AMPLE GULF/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AND FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS.  BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS VCNTY
KABE/KRDG/KTTN/PNE AND KPHL THIS MORNING. LIGHT NE WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS. LIGHT MOSTLY NE WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS. LIGHT EAST WIND TO START TRENDING S-SW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AROUND OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVING
WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDER
EACH AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS MAINLY N-NE TODAY WITH GUSTS REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KT.
LIGHT ENE WIND TONIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY VARIABLE DE COAST. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...GENERALLY A SUB-SCA FORECAST WITH SEAS
INCREASING A BIT UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREPAREDNESS...
SAFE BOATING WEEK IS THE 16TH THROUGH THE 22ND. PSA`S WILL POST ON
NWR AWIPS AND FB. THE BASIC INFO IS ALREADY ON OUR MARINE PAGE WITHIN
THE SAFE BOATING ICON AND CAN BE EXTRACTED FROM THE DAILY LINKS.

WE WILL ADJUST TWO OF THOSE PSA`S HERE. ONE OF IMPORTANCE FOR OUR
OFFICE IS THE DIRECT OBSERVED WEATHER WEB LINK TO OUR OFFICE LISTED
AS SUBMIT MARINE OBS.

THAT LINK TAKES LESS THAN 1 MINUTE TO FILL OUT, USING WHATEVER
INTERNET TECHNOLOGY YOU HAVE OUT ON THE WATER, INCLUDING SMART
PHONES. THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR THOSE WHO MAY COMPLAIN THAT OUR
FORECAST IS INACCURATE. IT IS YOUR OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE OUR
AWARENESS OF OVERWATER INFORMATION, WHICH CAN IMPROVE OUR
FORECAST. THE LINK HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM

ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT US.

HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK IS THE 24TH THROUGH 30TH

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 7-13. THIS ONE WILL HAVE PSA`S
ETC AND CAN INTERVIEWS CAN BE SET UP. WE LOSE ABOUT 2/YEAR ALONG
OUR NJ COAST... PREDOMINANTLY UNGUARDED BEACHES. IT IS OUR NUMBER
1 WEATHER RELATED KILLER. FOR SAFETY, DON`T RELY ON YOUR FAMILY
MEMBER TO SAVE YOU. INSTEAD .. WHEN THE SWIM SEASON BEGINS, SWIM
ONLY IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS! MORE INFO WILL BE SHARED IN
EARLY JUNE. MEANWHILE, OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST BEGINS NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING MAY 15.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1003
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 1003
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 1003
PREPAREDNESS...1003



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