Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 270429
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1030 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
AS LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN CONVERGING
WINDS WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUPPORT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT THUS HAVE TRENDED DRIER LATER
TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. VALLE

.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN NIGHT. LONG WAVE
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT DEVELOPS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
ZONAL FLOW TYPICALLY MEANS SHORT-WAVE DRIVEN PRECIPITATION...WHICH
CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SUITES AND EVEN FROM
RUN TO RUN. NO EXCEPTION HERE. BEYOND A TROUGH ON WED NIGHT AND
THU...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DONT OFFER MUCH AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THEM HAVE ANY MAJOR SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE THE WEATHER MAY BE SHOWERY AND EVEN
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR STORM
EVENTS OR WIND EVENTS. ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS NOW ON THE WED
NIGHT STORM...BUT BOTH HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION THREAT AND HAVE
TRENDED DOWN FOR THAT PERIOD. GFS IS WETTER THAN ECMWF ON FRI
NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS FROM UTAH. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR KPIH WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHLANDS TO THE SOUTH AND THEN PUSH INTO THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...THEN A RISK OF SOME
STRATUS RETURNING IN THE MORNING WITH THE DIURNAL COOLING. THE ONLY
OTHER NOTABLE THING FOR THE AIRDROMES IS THAT THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT KBYI SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT THINK THE STRATUS WILL BE ENOUGH TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
AVIATION CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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