Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 260525
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
325 PM CHST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
THROUGH EAST OF THE MARIANAS...MOVING LITTLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS ARE
KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT
MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT LATEST GFS HINTS THAT MOISTURE MAY
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE GRIDS ARE REMARKABLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
MODERATE TRADES AND GENERALLY 4-6 FT SEAS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEAK CIRCULATION THAT WAS SOUTH OF
MAJURO HAS DISSIPATED AND A WEAKENING TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER MAJURO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVERGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI MONDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE TROUGH
SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN OVER KOSRAE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN OVER MAJURO MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE ATOLL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST...RESULTING
IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS LIKELY FOR MAJURO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MAJURO FROM EAST OF THE DATE LINE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM 3N130E
THROUGH A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 7N140E.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
WESTERN MICRONESIA WEST OF CHUUK. LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY JUST EAST OF BOTH YAP AND KOROR. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BOTH
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AT KOROR AND MONDAY EVENING AT YAP. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARD MINDANAO. YAP AND KOROR WILL THEN SEE DRIER...MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER CHUUK ON SATURDAY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...LEAVING
ONLY A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER CHUUK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE



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