Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 041419
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

COMPARISONS OF THIS MORNING`S AND YESTERDAY MORNING`S SOUNDINGS
FROM TALLAHASSEE REVEAL A VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE, AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT,
HIGHS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
WHICH WAS WIDESPREAD LOW-TO-MID 80S WITH THE WARM LOCATIONS BEING
TALLAHASSEE AND BAINBRIDGE AT 86. WE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST UP SLIGHTLY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH OBSERVED CONDITIONS
FROM YESTERDAY, BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE REMAINING ELEVATED THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY
OFFSHORE. THE WIND FORECAST WAS TWEAKED UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE SEAS WERE ADJUSTED UP ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THEREFORE, WE WILL EXTEND THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [339 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
EVEN WITH STEADILY INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW, STILL EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND
PULL IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE A DISTURBANCE AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
SOME TRENDS IN THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES FOR A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW AND SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO THE WEST, THIS STILL KEEPS OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THE DRIER WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SATURDAY ON WHETHER THE SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OR TURN OUT TO SEA,
BUT RIDGING ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER
GENERALLY DRY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING EACH
DAY BENEATH THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP
MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE HIGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA.


.HYDROLOGY...
WITH NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL DECLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  61  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
PANAMA CITY   81  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
DOTHAN        83  59  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        83  58  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      84  59  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
CROSS CITY    85  58  84  59  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  81  62  82  66  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY


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