Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 051553
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
853 AM MST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TODAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TUCSON METRO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS EJECT THIS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING RESULTING IN A BREAK IN RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM WAS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERIOR WEST COAST INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA AS EARLY
AS TOMORROW BUT MORE SO THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON
TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA FURTHER SWWD TO
NEAR THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR KTUS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
LATE TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE WRN CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NERN ARIZONA.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FILL AND MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIG
OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW.

MEANWHILE...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR FURTHER SWWD TO NEAR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS GRAHAM
COUNTY. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED AS THE COLD UPPER
LOW PRESENTLY OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. A TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME BREEZINESS WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS THUR-FRI AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN NW OF THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT-
MON. EXPECT LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
WILL OCCUR DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUN-MON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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