Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FGUS71 KILN 011830
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INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-
135-161-187-191-201-OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-
045-047-049-057-061-065-071-073-089-091-097-107-109-113-129-131-
135-141-145-149-159-165-031830-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015


...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 16 IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS OUTLOOK IS THE FIFTH IN A BIWEEKLY SERIES OF OUTLOOKS FOR
THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH SOME POINTS POSSIBLY REACHING MODERATE
OR MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS.

THE FLOOD OUTLOOK IS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN WINTER AND
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

THE FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN DETERMINING FLOOD POTENTIAL INCLUDE
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR LEVELS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD...WATER EQUIVALENT IN ANY SNOW PACK...SOIL MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
THERE IS NO LONGER A SNOWPACK OVER THE AREA.

...STREAMFLOW...
STREAMFLOW VALUES WERE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL ACROSS THE REGION.

...ICE...
RIVER ICE IS NOT A PROBLEM.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS WERE GENERALLY EXHIBITING NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE FOR EARLY
APRIL. CONDITIONS VARY SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOILS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE WHILE FARTHER NORTH SOILS HAVE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE.

...RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
AREA RESERVOIRS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL POOL FOR EARLY APRIL.
HOWEVER MOST LAKES ARE STILL ONLY UTILIZING LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
OF THEIR STORAGE CAPACITY. THE HIGHEST LAKES ARE RELEASING WATER
IN ORDER TO BRING LAKE LEVELS CLOSER TO OPTIMUM FLOOD CONTROL.

...WEATHER TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION...
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF
CONSIDERABLE DURATION. FOR THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SLOW
MOVING AND MOISTURE-LADEN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT BASINS WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR THIS EVENT. ANOTHER PERSISTENT FRONTAL
ZONE MAY IMPACT STREAMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR THE 8 TO
14 DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
ALONG RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA CAN BE FOUND AT (ALL IN LOWERCASE):
WEATHER.GOV/ILN/ AND THEN CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB.

$$

CONIGLIO





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