Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FGUS72 KRAH 031428
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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST FRI APR 3 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SPRING IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

SHORT TERM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS SHOWN A MARKED
CONTRAST FROM DRY (AS LITTLE AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) IN THE WEST
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN) TO WETTER (UP TO
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) IN THE EAST. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LONGER
TERM RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND 75 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WEST TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL EAST...FOR THE YEAR TO DATE.

THE LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT (70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL) IN THE
YADKIN RIVER BASIN NOTED ABOVE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR MAINTAINING
AND RECENTLY EXPANDING ABNORMALLY DRY DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS DETERMINED
BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (WWW.DROUGHT.GOV). THE RECENT EXPANSION OF
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SOUTHERN
DAVIDSON AND STANLY COUNTIES.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS.

               PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
               WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2014)TO DATE

    MONTH           RDU            GSO        FAYETTEVILLE
---------------------------------------------------------------------

  OCTOBER        2.18/-1.07     2.01/-1.12     1.31/-1.90
  NOVEMBER       3.78/ 0.66     3.33/ 0.22     2.84/ 0.07
  DECEMBER       4.97/ 1.90     2.21/-0.77     4.22/ 1.57
  JANUARY        3.35/-0.15     2.04/-1.02     4.37/ 1.07
  FEBRUARY       2.91/-0.32     2.64/-0.32     3.28/ 0.52
  MARCH          3.28/-0.83     2.72/-1.01     2.70/-0.85
  APR TO DATE    0.00/-0.23     0.00/-0.25     0.00/-0.25

  TOTALS
  YEAR TO DATE   9.54/-1.53     7.40/-2.60    10.35/0.49
   % OF NORMAL      86              74            105
  WATER YEAR    20.47/-0.04    14.95/-4.27    18.72/0.23
   % OF NORMAL      100             78            100


                  BEGIN     ACTUAL   NORMAL  DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                  DATE       PCPN     PCPN   FROM NORM  OF NORM

RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)

 LAST   7 DAYS   03/27/2015   0.34    0.88     -0.54       39%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/20/2015   0.78    1.78     -1.00       44%
 LAST  30 DAYS   03/04/2015   2.54    3.95     -1.41       64%
 LAST  90 DAYS   01/03/2015   9.54   10.87     -1.33       88%
 LAST 180 DAYS   10/05/2014  20.38   20.06      0.32      102%
 LAST 365 DAYS   04/03/2014  54.77   43.34     11.43      126%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)

 LAST   7 DAYS   03/27/2015   0.33    0.87     -0.54       38%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/20/2015   0.69    1.70     -1.01       41%
 LAST  30 DAYS   03/04/2015   2.43    3.63     -1.20       67%
 LAST  90 DAYS   01/03/2015   7.40    9.82     -2.42       75%
 LAST 180 DAYS   10/05/2014  14.81   18.82     -4.01       79%
 LAST 365 DAYS   04/03/2014  33.18   42.20     -9.02       79%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)

 LAST   7 DAYS   03/27/2015   0.44    0.94     -0.50       47%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/20/2015   0.87    1.75     -0.88       50%
 LAST  30 DAYS   03/04/2015   2.48    3.48     -1.00       71%
 LAST  90 DAYS   01/03/2015  10.33    9.68      0.65      107%
 LAST 180 DAYS   10/05/2014  18.59   17.82      0.77      104%
 LAST 365 DAYS   04/03/2014  42.14   44.46     -2.32       95%

STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE HAVE BEEN TWO RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT
(>0.25 INCHES) PRECIPITATION EVENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SINCE MID MARCH...BUT NEITHER OF THESE PRODUCED MORE THAN A HALF
INCH OVER AN EXTENSIVE AREA. THE NET RESULT WAS TO MARGINALLY
MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

STREAMFLOWS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A FALLING TREND AND A NUMBER OF
LARGER STREAMS IN THE YADKIN/PEE DEE AND HAW RIVER BASINS ARE BELOW
NORMAL (LESS THAN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC...FALLS
LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS...ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOWS
TO THE LAKES...BUT ARE BOTH THREE TENTHS OF A FOOT ABOVE THEIR TARGET
POOL...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE PUBLIC WATER
SUPPLIES THROUGH THE SUMMER.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
MID APRIL. A SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH RAIN WE
MIGHT RECEIVE. IT IS ESTIMATED THAN IT WOULD REQUIRE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE. AS
SUCH...THE SHORT RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CLASSIFIED AS
NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO MID APRIL.

LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...APRIL IS NEAR THE PEAK FREQUENCY FOR RIVER
FLOODING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF
EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 2015...WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF ENHANCED RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DEEP LAYER (0-200 CM) SOIL MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY 50 TO 60 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WITH GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CONSIDERED `WET` WHEN ESTIMATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF BASE FLOW TO
POTENTIAL RUNOFF. AS SUCH...THERE IS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM MID APRIL THROUGH THE END OF SPRING.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND DISCUSSION MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

IN SUMMARY...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ARE
SOMEWHAT DRIER. THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH MID APRIL
IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL.

THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SPRING...BUT ANTECEDENT DRYNESS WOULD NEED TO BE
OVERCOME TO PRODUCE INCREASED CHANCES OF RIVER FLOODING. THE CHANCE
FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM MID APRIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SPRING
IS CATEGORIZED AS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 16TH.

MLM



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