Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 190645
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
245 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...THEN MUCH NEEDED RAIN...

.DISCUSSION...
LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...GUSTY EAST WINDS AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
MICHIGAN. EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-192015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
245 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.29-0.44 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......38 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
245 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.33-0.63 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.19 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
245 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AFTER
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.47 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......41 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-192015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
245 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.14 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.58 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......44 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 39 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.20 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
245 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.38-0.60 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.19 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MLR



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