Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 271618
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRIAR MNT...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1220 EDT ON APRIL 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    30 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 22 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............74  80  84  82  80  78
WEATHER COV.........        SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........        RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................52  52  54  53  53  52
RH..................48  48  47  48  47  49
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......16  16  16  17  18  20
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  25  25  25  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT).......7.7 8.3 8.4 8.3 7.7 6.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  17  17  20  21  22
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 13
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............76  73  72  71  67  64  60  57  55  54  52  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53  53  48  47  46  45  45  44  44  43  43  42
RH..................50  52  59  62  64  67  68  68  69  71  73  75
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......18  18  17  16  15  14  14  14  13  13  13  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....30  25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.8 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....20  17  14  12  10  10  10  12  13  12  10  10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............49  47  46  46  45  45  44  44  44  43  42  40
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................41  41  45  48  50  53  55  56  58  60  61  59
RH..................78  79  68  63  58  53  51  48  47  45  43  47
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......12  12  12  12  12  13  13  13  13  13  12  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.5 1.0 2.3 3.7 5.0 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.6 7.0 7.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  14  16  18  20  21  21  20  18  18  17  17
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...PHIL BIETSCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150427.BRIAR.02/CTP



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