Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 241416
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR CEMETERY RIDGE...USFS LBL NAT REC AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
916 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 24.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THERE IS A MODERATE INVERSION AROUND 3600FT. IT ON THE ORDER OF
ONE TO TWO DEGREES. IF YOUR PLUME IS WARM ENOUGH TO ERODE OR RAISE
THE TEMPERATURE 2+ DEGREES YOU COULD BREAK IT. WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH IF YOU ERODE THE CAP THEY WILL
TAKE OVER. TONIGHT THE INVERSION DROPS TO AROUND 1000 FEET...TRAPPING
ANY SMOKE AFTER DARK IN THAT LAYER. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES AROUND AFTER 3PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 9 MPH AT
                    IGNITION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 31 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2600-3800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 20 TO
                    21 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........84     87     90
WEATHER COV.....       CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............64     65     67
RH..............40     37     36
20 FT WIND......SE 9   SE 7   SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE
                    EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................31 PERCENT INCREASING TO 81 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1600 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO 0 TO 9 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 14 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........96     99     99     98     98     99
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
TEMP............65     62     60     58     57     58
RH..............43     54     67     77     83     83
20 FT WIND......SE 5   SE 5   SE 6   S 7    S 7    SE 8
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      2      2      2      2

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79.
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO
                    21 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................81 PERCENT DECREASING TO 66 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1800-3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 48
                    MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........96     89     73     52     42     43
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP............60     62     66     73     78     79
RH..............87     90     84     68     56     52
20 FT WIND......SE 8   SE 9   S 13   S 16   SW 18  SW 21
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     25     25     30
HAINES INDEX....2      2      3      4      4      5

$$
FORECASTER...HOOPER
REQUESTED BY...LBL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150424.CEMET.01/PAH



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