Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 040919
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY GOOD BURNING CONDITIONS TODAY...ALL PARAMETERS LOOK WITHIN
PRESCRIPTION.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING...WIND FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST.

ANOTHER VERY WARM...MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...SO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY
SHOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL AT 1000...INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............6      9      25     39     48     54
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48     54     62     68     74     78
RH..................90     77     48     35     30     27
20 FT WIND..........W 0    W 0    SW 2   SW 3   SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    2500   5000   7400   7900
TRANSPORT WIND......W 2    W 0    W 5    SW 9   SW 11  SW 14
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO
                    4 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............48     34     27     25     25     23
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     70     66     62     60     59
RH..................31     42     52     61     68     74
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 3   SW 3   W 2    W 2    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........6700   4000   1500   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 13  SW 10  SW 6   W 2    W 3    W 3
CWR.................5      10     10     0      0      10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4
                    TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............24     28     36     49     60     59
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   SCTTRD
TEMP................56     60     66     71     75     76
RH..................84     74     60     51     46     45
20 FT WIND..........W 2    W 1    W 2    W 4    W 4    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5             5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    3000   5000   6200   6700
TRANSPORT WIND......W 2    W 2    W 9    W 13   W 9    W 8
CWR.................0      10     10     10     20     30

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.03/RNK



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