Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 060725
SWODY3
SPC AC 060724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD TO CENTRAL AZ DURING FRIDAY
AS A BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA SWWD TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/W TX. A
SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NWD. CONSULT THE
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KS/OK AIDED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW/CLOUDS WILL INFLUENCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION AND
SUBSEQUENT PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN W OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
FRIDAY...HOWEVER LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW WILL
ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ONE IMPULSE
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MAY AID THE CONTINUATION
OF MORNING TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONSEQUENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SRN
KS/OK/W TX. STG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND NOCTURNALLY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OCCURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE MCS MOVES EWD OVERNIGHT.

...SRN NC COAST...
LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES A SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NC-SC
BORDER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIALLY-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THE RISK FOR
A TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST.

..BUNTING.. 05/06/2015




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