Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 242018
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

ANOTHER FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT SHAPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT
OF COURSE NOT WITHOUT OUR USUAL HOST OF PESKY FORECAST PROBLEMS SO
TYPICAL TO THE AREA. THIS ROUND`S CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. EARLY
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY ONCE AGAIN...WITH A
BROAD AXIS OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEPARTING CHILLY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED STRATOCU OVER THE EASTERN LAKES...AND A BROAD AXIS OF
WARM ADVECTION-DRIVEN LOW/MID CLOUDS (AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS)
OFF TO THE WEST. QUITE THE WEDGE OF DRY AIR RESIDES IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS ACROSS OUR AREA...HELPING ERODE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
SO FAR TODAY AS IT HAS ATTEMPTED TO WORK EASTWARD.

THAT WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS DOMINATING...AS WELL AS LOWER RH VALUES
COURTESY OF MIXING INTO THE DRYNESS ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR
WITH TIME WE WILL SEE THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER SKIRT THE
SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS
STRETCHES EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKING
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THE PAST FEW DAYS PUSHING RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS (AROUND
MANISTEE) TONIGHT...JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING WITH SUCH DRYNESS
BELOW 8KFT AND BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. AT WORST...THERE COULD
BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO DOWN THAT WAY...WHILE AREAS FARTHER NORTH SEE
LITTLE MORE THAN A BOUT OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WITH A
SLACK GRADIENT IN PLACE THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND LOW DEW
POINTS...SHOULD SEE THE SHELTERED LOCALES DROP QUICKLY IN TEMPS THIS
EVENING BUT ALL AREAS STEADYING OUT IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S OVERNIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN WIND AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...DRY WEEKEND WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PAST WEEK NOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND (THOUGH ITS
NOT GOING COMPLETELY AWAY)...WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL U.S..  SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW FEATURES TROUGHING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO...NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THAT CUTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES HAS SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE HIGH
PLAINS.

UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AS LARGER SCALE
PATTERN TRENDING MORE BLOCKY/BOTTLED UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ONE
CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW TAKING UP EXTENDED RESIDENCE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE TO DEFLECT SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AS IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WITH
NARROW RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN UPPER LOWS THAT BUILDS OVER THE
TOP OF THE NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE OF THE FORECAST PATTERN.  UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW ENGLAND DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS/TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE
NEW ENGLAND LOW AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WHICH IS
WHAT WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE AT BAY.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
AS SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...THEN GET SHUNTED EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BACK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY (I.E.,
COOLER) DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (THE LATTER WILL BE COVERED IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST).

SATURDAY...SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION OF SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY WITH VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW
(MORE NORTHERLY) SHOULD PUSH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  SO MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER FORECAST TO THIN/PUSH SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.  EXPECT TO
SEE MORE HIGHS IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAG SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...A NOT
UNREASONABLE POSSIBILITY GIVEN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AIDED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND PARENT NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THE END RESULT EXPECTED TO BE MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SHOWER THREAT AT THIS POINT.  A SLIGHTLY COOLER POCKET OF AIR WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND COMBINED WITH SOME MORE CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS (STILL
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL).  WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
ENERGY SPINNING BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
TRYING TO TIME INDIVIDUAL FEATURES DIFFICULT IN THESE SCENARIOS.

MONDAY...MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE STILL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDINESS DEPENDING ON
WHAT SMALL WAVES COME BACK IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOOKING TO BE A QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. H5 FLOW REMAINS MERIDIONAL...
WITH RIDGING OVER US FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. KEEPING WITH THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL...UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S...FOR MOST PLACES. SPOTS AT THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
U.P. MAY BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL INTO THE 50S.

CLEAR SKIES COULD BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOWS PHASE TO OUR SOUTH...
PRODUCING SOME TROUGHING OVER US. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT TO INTRODUCE PRECIP...BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE BEFORE
CLEARING ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS. A BAND OF THICKER
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD MBL AND TVC THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TRYING ITS BEST
TO SLIDE TO AROUND MBL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE DOWN LOW...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR
TWO...WHILE AREAS FARTHER NORTH SEE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT INFLUENCE BY LAKE
BREEZES UP TO 10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GO
LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY...AS REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH QUICKLY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..WITH WINDS VARYING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BUT HOLDING UNDER 20 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE



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