Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 251049
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
649 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...MORE SUN TODAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER NEW
ENGLAND WHILE A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE HAS SEEMINGLY CLOSED OFF IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PER LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPIRALING AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE. STRONGER
STORMS WERE CROSSING THE GULF STATES WITHIN THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AXIS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN SD ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER WAVE/LOW PRESSURE...AND WERE GETTING ENGULFED INTO THE
CLOSED SYSTEM. AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST OF THIS
LOW...TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS BEING
THROWN OVER THIS FRONT...AND WAS RESULTING LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN LAKE/LOWER MICHIGAN.

OVER NRN MI...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PROMINENT ACROSS THE GTV BAY
REGION AND THE M-55 CORRIDOR...WHILE SKIES REMAINED CLEAR ACROSS THE
NE CWA...FROM EASTERN UPPER THROUGH ALPENA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CONTROLLING MOST OF THE REGION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STILL REALLY NOT MUCH GOING ON AROUND NRN MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRAG THEIR WAY EASTWARD WHILE ALSO LIKELY
DISSIPATING TO SOME DEGREE...AS THE WAVE ACROSS SD GETS COMPLETELY
ENGULFED...AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FADES. THIS PAINTS A
PICTURE OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE GTV BAY AND M-55
REGIONS. EASTERN UPPER TO ALPENA WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY ALL DAY.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE DEPARTING SFC OW WILL ALLOW OUR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO GET PULLED BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF THE CLOSED NEW ENGLAND
LOW IS THROWN BACK INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL START USHERING IN COLDER AIR AND A LIKELY BAND OF LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE SAULT AND ALPENA AREAS (SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS QUEBEC/FAR EASTERN ONTARIO). THIS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY. NO RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG NORTHEAST GYRE EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/EMBEDDED LARGELY MOISTURE STARVED ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PATTERN MAY ATTEMPT TO
BECOME JUST A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
ALTHOUGH CURRENT "BLOCKY" PATTERN SURE ARGUES FOR A TOUCH SLOWER
EVOLUTION. EITHER WAY...OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST IS A
DRY...SOMEWHAT COOL ONE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT OUR AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NOT A WHOLE LOT. FOCUS LARGELY
CENTERED ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: STILL APPEARS A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES WILL ROTATE
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
OTHERS ON MONDAY. ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUMES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH ANY OF THESE...AND STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF RUNNING WITH A DRY
FORECAST DESPITE THEIR PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. TOUGHER
CALL REGARDING CLOUD TRENDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ENTIRELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS TIED TO THESE SECONDARY WAVES.
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW AND POCKET OF COOLER AIR TIED TO PASSING
WAVE(S) WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH ON THE COOL SIDE
SUNDAY...WITH ONLY SOME SUBTLE MODERATION EXPECTED TO KICK OFF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PATTERN LOOKS TO START GOING THROUGH SOME CHANGES HEADING INTO
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...BECOMING A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE PROCESS. LOOKS LIKE WE CAN SAY GOOD RIDDANCE TO OUR EASTERN
SYSTEM...ONLY TO BE REPLACED PERHAPS BY ANOTHER DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF AGREEMENT
WITHIN GEFS ON STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. BEEN RUNNING
WITH A DRY FORECAST...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...SURE PREFER NOT TO
DEVIATE FROM SUCH JUST YET. WHAT HAPPENS MIDWEEK WILL GREATLY
DICTATE LATE WEEK WEATHER...AS A STRONGER SOLUTION TO NORTHERN
WAVE MAY YET AGAIN SLOW THE PATTERN DOWN SOME. ONCE AGAIN...JUST
SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE FROM INHERITED DRY FORECAST.
NO DOUBT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD...AND FUTURE
CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL CROSS THE OHIO
RIVER RIVER VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. THE VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
TVC/MBL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES FOR ALL...AND CLEAR SKIES INTO THE NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT MAINLY 10KTS OR LESS TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND USHER IN LOW END 4-5KFT VFR
CIGS FOR APN...SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
HOLD THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE COMMON EVERYWHERE...POSSIBLY TRYING TO TURN ONSHORE THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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