Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 011405
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NO CHANGES SO FAR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT NEAR TERM PERIOD EXPECTED...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  COLD FRONT  STRETCHED FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM/STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A CO-LOCATED AXIS OF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR.  THE RESULT IS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL LIE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...
WHILE UPPER MIDWEST COLD FRONT WEAKENS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GETS SHEARED APART.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TODAY...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH TODAY WITH A PRETTY BENIGN SYNOPTIC SET
UP.  A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS IN SPOTS AND SOME CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.  LAKE BREEZES SHOULD PREDOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZES
WARMING INTO THE 60S (AROUND 70 ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER).

TONIGHT...BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT.
SOME THICKER MID CLOUDS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BEFORE REACHING MICHIGAN AS
FORCING (FRONTOGENESIS IN PARTICULAR) FALLS APART.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH STEADY WARMING ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE
THE WARMING TREND. THERE IS A SMALL WRINKLE IN THE FLOW (MOISTURE
STARVED SHORT WAVE) THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY BUT FORCING
IS WEAK AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS ONLY SUPPORT A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. SUNSHINE SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE SUNDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DUE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PACIFIC
ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE TO
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS (700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF ABOUT 7 C/KM) TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KNOTS AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS
APPROACH 1.25 INCHES. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70
THE THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE MILD MIDDLE 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LAST FEW MODELS RUNS HAVE GONE AWAY FROM STALLING A FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA (NOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY).
THE 01/00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR QUICKLY PRESSING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END
TO ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ITS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN SAID FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH OR IF IT SIMPLY WASHES OUT ALTOGETHER. EITHER
WAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK...LEADING TO WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (THOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN MUDDLED THIS
FAR OUT). HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THEN THE MIDDLE
60S TO MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SPOTS
EVEN APPROACHED 80). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS THEN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...LAKE BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: LAKE BREEZES WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE.

OUTLOOK: NO HEADLINES SATURDAY...INCREASING SMALL CRAFT THREAT
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB



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