Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 201956
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A 983MB SFC LOW JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE FANTASTIC UPPER
PENINSULA...WHILE RAIN SHOWER ARE OCCURING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVER ERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE SW SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE DRY AIR
SHIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ALL RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS COOLER WINDS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ERN WI...LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE/SHORTWAVE FORCED
RAIN AND SNOW ALSO BEING FORCED BY A SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPS AND 2M TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
SHOWERS WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON. USED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM THE NAM TO
DELINEATE RAIN/SNOW/MIX. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS SYSTEM LINGERS INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE GFS/GEFS/GEM NOTABLY SLOWER MOVING IT OUT THAN
RECENT ECMWF/UKMET RUNS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...WILL SIMPLY RIDE WITH
INHERITED FORECAST...FEATURING SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS (AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA) RIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A DRY WEEKEND. NO MATTER HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL BE A SLOW ONE...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TUE
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ON TUE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTH OF
MICHIGAN...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND BIGGEST
WAVES FROM THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JIT
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JIT
MARINE...JIT



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