Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240230
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AT THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. BUT GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS THAT REALLY TANKED AND
DECENTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON (PER 00Z SOUNDING)
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BIG PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE STATE HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT MOST AREAS IN THE
CWA...WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF CLOUD COVER HANGING ON AROUND THE
SOO AND PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME CHILLY TEMPERATURES BY MORNING...PER GOING FORECAST. WITH
SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW MELT TODAY...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG LATER ON TONIGHT. THATS NOT IN THE
FORECAST RIGHT NOW ALTHOUGH I MAY END UP ADDING PATCHING FOG TO
PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING!

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FORETELLS THE TREND HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH OUR BLOB OF DREARY LOW CLOUDS GETTING THE BOOT FROM
WEST TO EAST...COURTESY OF TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLEARING LINE
AS OF 19Z IS WORKING THROUGH WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AS
WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA NO LATER THAN 00Z. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...COULD SEE JUST
A FEW SHREDS OF STRATOCUMULUS BUBBLE UP JUST BEHIND THE MAIN
CLEARING AXIS BENEATH OUR LINGERING CHILL ALOFT...THOUGH DEEPER
MIXING AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD REALLY PUT THE KIBOSH ON
THAT QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A VERY QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT
IN THE WORKS AS WE GRADUALLY SLACKEN THE GRADIENT...SUGGESTING
WESTERN SECTIONS AND SHELTERED LOCALES SHOULD SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE
TEENS PER CURRENT DEW POINT TRENDS...WHILE MANY OTHER AREAS STILL
END UP DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MINIMAL

FORECAST CHALLENGE:  THERE IS A CLOSE CALL ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY FOR RAIN GETTING INTO THE REGION ON THE GFS.

(04/24)FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC AND AT 500MB THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY. ONE ISSUE TO KEEP IN MIND WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY. NOT EXPECTING A FIRE
DANGER YET, WITH THE SNOW COVER THAT WILL STILL BE MELTING OFF
DURING THE DAY WITH THE SUNSHINE AND THE 30S TO 40S SFC
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE NIGHT, MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
WILL INCREASE AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DISAGREED ON THIS FEATURE, WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN INTO THE SW COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH, AND ITS SET UP FOR LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR, THINK THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE IS TOO AGGRESSIVE TO SUPPORT
RAIN. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SEEMED TO HANDLE THESE
HUDSON BAY EVENTS BETTER THAN THE GFS OVER THE LAST FEW OCCURRENCES.

(04/25)SATURDAY...AS WAS STATED, THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN IN THE
SW COUNTIES, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY HAVING THE RAIN CLOSER I-96,
DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE THAT LINE OF THINKING AND KEEP EVERYTHING
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE DRY AIR THE COOL DRY AIR REMAINS, WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL GO WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW.

(04/26)SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE 850 MB MOISTURE (RH>80%) MOVING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY, IT COULD
TURN OUT TO BE MORE CLOUDY THAN OUR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THAT WE
HAVE CURRENTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -3C SO THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY, BUT THINK THAT MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE OVER
LAKE HURON. NE LOWER WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THERE ARE STILL NO GLARING SIGNS THAT WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF
CONSEQUENCE RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS
POINT...AM INCLINED TO HOLD ON TO A DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE
CONVINCING EVIDENCE THAT ANY ONE FEATURE IS A LOCK TO PRODUCE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FIRST PERIOD IN QUESTION ARRIVES
MONDAY AS EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST...PERHAPS PINWHEELING A BIT OF ENERGY BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES (PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AT BEST?). SECONDLY...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY TO
SWING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A
NEARLY DRY FORECAST...ALL WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THERE COULD BE A DAY
OR TWO IN THERE WHERE WE SEE A BIT OF PRECIP SCATTERED IN NATURE.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKING LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH SUPPORT FOR HIGHS MONDAY-THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 50S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS HOVERING THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE CURRENTLY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN EARLIER SNOW MELT/DAMP GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THAT IN
ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT. TYPICAL FOG SPOTS
WOULD BE MOST PRONE (PLN).

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND EVENTUAL MID CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL A LITTLE GUSTY ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE
HOLD ONTO A BETTER GRADIENT OUT THAT WAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARRIVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES (AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE!) SHOULD BE SEEN FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...HOLDING INTO
SATURDAY FOR MANY AREAS AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD...NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERALL WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD



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