Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 302300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

...CLEARING AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

REGIONAL PATTERN: MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IS NOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN AND STILL
MOVING SOUTH...WITH ANY REMAINING "DEEPER" MOISTURE WITH THIS
FEATURE HEADING WITH IT.  1024 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF JAMES
BAY ASSOCIATED WITH SHARP UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
IS GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOW
OVER WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED ON EVENING CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING: CLEARING TREND HAS ACCELERATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE SUNSET.  LATE
DAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE 50S
THROUGH 8PM. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: VERY QUIET FORECAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE NORTH.  WITH DEEP MOISTURE PINWHEELING SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND
AFTERNOON DIURNALLY-ENHANCED ACTIVITY FIZZLING...EXPECT CLEAR/MCLEAR
SKIES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL NICELY...LIKELY
TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH LOW TO MID 30S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: PRONOUNCED CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING IT/S
WAY DOWN THROUGH ILLINOIS/INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRETTY MUCH
ALL PRECIP HAVING MISSED THIS CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING AS WELL...PRETTY MUCH AS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
UPSTREAM...RIDGING AND WARMER AIR HAS PRESSED INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES. UPSTREAM RIDGING/FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SPREADING WARMING AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...A DRY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS STAIR
STEPPING THEIR WAY INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...NICE. UPSTREAM SFC AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LEADING TO QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S FOR ALL AREAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN ROCKIES SLATED TO WASH OUT AND SLIP ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO OUR FRONT ON THURSDAY...
FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE SCANT...SO I/M REALLY NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAT A CORRIDOR OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TO
OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL
AGAIN WARM THROUGH THE 60S FOR ALL AREAS AND WE MIGHT EVEN SEE A
70 DEGREE READING IN A COUPLE SPOTS.

SUNDAY...WEATHER STARTS TO TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS NRN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET PRESS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/US-CANADIAN BORDER REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SFC LOW IN CENTRAL CANADA
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT/PRECIP STRETCHING INTO THE PLAINS...AND FORECAST
TO BE PRESSING INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...AND WHILE CLOSE...RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL JUST REMAIN OUT OF THIS CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL KEEP THE SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AT THIS
POINT (HAVE POPS ENTERING THE PICTURE AFTER 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

RAIN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY TRANSITS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. GOING INTO MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BE WORKING TOWARD THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL SET UP HELPING TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH JUST HOW FAR NORTH
IT MIGHT GO AND HOW LONG IT WILL STICK AROUND. WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY...THE
WARM BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO BE MORE SOUTH. THE DRY AIR WITH THIS
HIGH WILL FURTHER HAMPER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. AS SUCH...AGREE WITH
AND WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR MIDWEEK. LATE
WEEK SHOWER CHANCES HAVE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW...DEPENDENT
ON LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WILL GO WITH CHANCES
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE RAIN WEST OF THE REGION
EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAKING A PUSH TOWARD 70 AGAIN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS ON FRIDAY...
BUT SHOULD STAY AOB 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TODAY/S NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKENING.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THIS HIGH GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH
OF THE REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED.  LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...ARNOTT



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