Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 151658
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
12Z APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL/SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MISSOURI.
SOUNDING SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM DRIER NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DIRECTION. SO EXPECT CIRRUS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN
TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB WHICH ARE
AT +3C THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SOME BY
LATE MORNING WITH MIXING. WINDS CURRENTLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
900MB...15 TO 20KTS THROUGH 850MB. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
STILL EXPECT ANY THICKER CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...ADAM



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