Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280751
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...MORE OF THE SAME PATTERN-WISE. WE REMAIN
BETWEEN WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AROUND.
CLOUDS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WERE CENTERED OVER NE LOWER WITH ERODING OF
THESE CLOUDS SEEN FROM EVERY DIRECTION. FROM THE NE...WEAK WAA IS
THE CAUSE...AND THIS WAS STEADILY PUSHING SW WITH TIME. DRY AIR
SEEMINGLY TRYING TO BLEED IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE (DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING EFFECTS OF THE BL IN A WEAK
WIND/MINIMAL ADVECTION REGIME)...WITH MOST ALL AREAS CLEAR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. UPSTREAM...DECAYING COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MARCHING
EASTWARD WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BEHIND
IT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FADES AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE
REGION. ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF NE LOWER WHERE CU WILL
FIRE OFF. THIS CUMULUS WILL COLLECT ACROSS NE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
AS CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS FROM LAKE BREEZES. THIS CU EXPECTED TO FADE
INTO THE EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF FAIRLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THEN...THE UPSTREAM DECAYING COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN OVERNIGHT WITH A
BAND OF CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ARRIVE NORTH OF M-
32 TOWARD DAYBREAK.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 4MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...COOLER
LAKESHORES. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANY REMAINING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY WHICH HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
RAIN CHANCES GO...STILL AM NOT CONVINCED THAT WE SEE ANY REALLY
DESPITE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO ABOUT 7 C/KM.
HOWEVER...TO AVOID FLIP FLOPPING THE FORECAST HAVE LEFT IN LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE THIS OUT. HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WELL AS RAISED LOWS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HIGHS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY THEN REMAINS OVER A POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FRIDAY THEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SATURDAY AND THE LOWER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S SUNDAY. HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 70 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS THEN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

...DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST BUT MAINLY VFR...

NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WRAPPING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN CONTINUED LOW END VFR CIGS
4-5KFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE BURIED WITHIN A LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WHICH
WAS UNDERGOING WAA ON THE NE END OF IT ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLOW ERODING WITH TIME...RESULTING IN AN OVERALL
SHRINKING OF THE CLOUDS...WITH A CENTER FOCUSED OVER NE LOWER.
THUS...THIS IS THE LAST AREA WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO ERODE AND
ALSO WHERE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL CONGEAL
AFTERNOON CU. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

SOME ADDED CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM AN UPSTREAM
DECAYING COLD FRONT. HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AS EVERYTHING
FROM MVFR TO CIRRUS SEEN ATTM.

THE BACK EDGE CLEARING LINE ARRIVES AT APN 12-13Z...BUT UNTIL
THEN...COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TO LOWER CIGS INTO MVFR AT
TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES
IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON. A DECAYING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN
AN UPTICK OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES IN THE NRN NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS NOT TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STILL NO ADVISORY LEVEL CONCERNS. WINDS WEAKEN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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