Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 200645
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
245 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS REACHED FAR SW LWR MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER HAS SPREAD ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA...WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPANDING AROUND AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THANKS TO STRONG 700-500
MB OMEGA AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DIMINISH
IN POP DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER REACHES
ERN UPR MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE THEN QUICKLY WRAPS BACK INTO
MICHIGAN AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO CANADA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN PLACE THRU EARLY
MORNING...WITH ONLY A MINOR DIMINISH IN POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SRN CWA THRU THE DAY. ALL THUNDER CHANCES WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
MICHIGAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S IN NE LWR MICHIGAN.

SRN EDGE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS DEEP INTO CANADA TONIGHT. HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY)
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING
WHERE LIFT AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. ALL
POPS WILL DIMINISH TO CHANCE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -3 TO -4 C TONIGHT.
WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD (YET) TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES
TO PROVIDE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO ONGOING SYNOPTIC PRECIP...BUT IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO MIX SOME SNOW IN WITH THE ONGOING RAIN
EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AS
SURFACE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UNFORTUNATELY...NOW MUCH
TALKED ABOUT CHANGES TO A COOLER WEATHER REGIME ALREADY UNFOLDING AT
THIS EARLY HOUR...WITH ROBUST WEST NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING ON ITS FRONT SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP CARVE OUT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FORMER HELPING NEGATE ANY REAL KICKER
SYSTEM TO HELP BOOT THIS SYSTEM OUT. THIS SPELLS A RATHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF COOL AND DAMP WEATHER...WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE
A LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW BY THE TIME THIS WORK WEEK WRAPS UP
(QUELL THE EXCITEMENT :)).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE.

DETAILS: CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE GYRE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO START THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD (TUESDAY)...ESSENTIALLY STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH RIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE AT NO TIMES DOES FORCING SEEM
GREAT...SPOKES OF SUPPORT ROTATING AROUND PARENT SYSTEM COMBINING
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC MOISTURE RICH FLOW AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (H5 TEMPS STILL SLATED TO FLIRT WITH -30C) WILL DEFINITELY
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LACK OF ANY DEEP LAYER TRIGGER...WOULD EXPECT GREATEST SHOWER
COVERAGE TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED. STILL HINTS OVER-RIDING AIRMASS MAY
BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH TO ENTICE AT LEAST SOME MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REAL MARGINAL
DELTA T/S (JUST FLIRTING WITH 13C) SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH GOTTA ADMIT SUCH PERSISTENT WEST FLOW UP INTO
THE HIGHLANDS DOES RAISE AN EYEBROW OR TWO. INCREASINGLY COLD OFF
THE DECK THERMAL PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES DEFINITELY SUPPORTS
SNOW AND GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE REAL POSSIBILITY ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW. OVERNIGHT PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MORE OF AN ALL SNOW ENVIRONMENT AS SURFACE BASED MELTING
LAYER IS NEARLY/COMPLETELY LOST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THE GROUND TO
TURN WHITE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (AN INCH OR SO)...ESPECIALLY WHERE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IS REALIZED INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.

AFTER THIS PAST WEEKS PLEASANT WEATHER...JUST GONNA FEEL DOWNRIGHT
CHILLY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S
(COLDEST WEDNESDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A GOOD 10 OR SO DEGREES
COLDER. GUSTY WINDS AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL ONLY ADD CONSIDERABLE
MORE CHILL. SOUNDS FUN...DOESN`T IT?

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS SYSTEM LINGERS INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE GFS/GEFS/GEM NOTABLY SLOWER MOVING IT OUT THAN
RECENT ECMWF/UKMET RUNS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...WILL SIMPLY RIDE WITH
INHERITED FORECAST...FEATURING SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS (AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA) RIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A DRY WEEKEND. NO MATTER HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL BE A SLOW ONE...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 00Z TUESDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR THRU EARLY
MORNING WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR...ALBEIT LOW VFR. EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS THRU EARLY
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE W/SW BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE
AREAS THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD
THRU MICHIGAN. EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW BY AROUND MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTH OF MICHIGAN...SHIFTING THE
FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND BIGGEST WAVES FROM THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ341-342.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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