Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 231947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING!

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FORETELLS THE TREND HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH OUR BLOB OF DREARY LOW CLOUDS GETTING THE BOOT FROM
WEST TO EAST...COURTESY OF TREMENDOUSLY DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLEARING LINE
AS OF 19Z IS WORKING THROUGH WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AS
WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA NO LATER THAN 00Z. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...COULD SEE JUST
A FEW SHREDS OF STRATOCUMULUS BUBBLE UP JUST BEHIND THE MAIN
CLEARING AXIS BENEATH OUR LINGERING CHILL ALOFT...THOUGH DEEPER
MIXING AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD REALLY PUT THE KIBOSH ON
THAT QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A VERY QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT
IN THE WORKS AS WE GRADUALLY SLACKEN THE GRADIENT...SUGGESTING
WESTERN SECTIONS AND SHELTERED LOCALES SHOULD SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE
TEENS PER CURRENT DEW POINT TRENDS...WHILE MANY OTHER AREAS STILL
END UP DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MINIMAL

FORECAST CHALLENGE:  THERE IS A CLOSE CALL ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY FOR RAIN GETTING INTO THE REGION ON THE GFS.

(04/24)FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC AND AT 500MB THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY. ONE ISSUE TO KEEP IN MIND WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY. NOT EXPECTING A FIRE
DANGER YET, WITH THE SNOW COVER THAT WILL STILL BE MELTING OFF
DURING THE DAY WITH THE SUNSHINE AND THE 30S TO 40S SFC
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE NIGHT, MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
WILL INCREASE AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DISAGREED ON THIS FEATURE, WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN INTO THE SW COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH, AND ITS SET UP FOR LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR, THINK THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE IS TOO AGGRESSIVE TO SUPPORT
RAIN. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SEEMED TO HANDLE THESE
HUDSON BAY EVENTS BETTER THAN THE GFS OVER THE LAST FEW OCCURRENCES.

(04/25)SATURDAY...AS WAS STATED, THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN IN THE
SW COUNTIES, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY HAVING THE RAIN CLOSER I-96,
DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE THAT LINE OF THINKING AND KEEP EVERYTHING
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE DRY AIR THE COOL DRY AIR REMAINS, WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL GO WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW.

(04/26)SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE 850 MB MOISTURE (RH>80%) MOVING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY, IT COULD
TURN OUT TO BE MORE CLOUDY THAN OUR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THAT WE
HAVE CURRENTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -3C SO THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY, BUT THINK THAT MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE OVER
LAKE HURON. NE LOWER WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THERE ARE STILL NO GLARING SIGNS THAT WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF
CONSEQUENCE RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS
POINT...AM INCLINED TO HOLD ON TO A DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE
CONVINCING EVIDENCE THAT ANY ONE FEATURE IS A LOCK TO PRODUCE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FIRST PERIOD IN QUESTION ARRIVES
MONDAY AS EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST...PERHAPS PINWHEELING A BIT OF ENERGY BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES (PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AT BEST?). SECONDLY...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY TO
SWING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A
NEARLY DRY FORECAST...ALL WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THERE COULD BE A DAY
OR TWO IN THERE WHERE WE SEE A BIT OF PRECIP SCATTERED IN NATURE.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKING LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH SUPPORT FOR HIGHS MONDAY-THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 50S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS HOVERING THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

PERSISTENT LOWER CLOUDS IN THE 2800-4500 FT RANGE WILL GIVE WAY TO
RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LOOK
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH THINGS A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TOWARD APN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH ANY GUSTS STILL UNDER 18KT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL A LITTLE GUSTY ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE
HOLD ONTO A BETTER GRADIENT OUT THAT WAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARRIVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES (AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE!) SHOULD BE SEEN FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...HOLDING INTO
SATURDAY FOR MANY AREAS AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD...NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERALL WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD



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