Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 152300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL APPEARS
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO TVC. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF


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