Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 172005
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...ONE MORE DRY DAY THEN RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE OVER
HUDSON BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
STATE. NORTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO QUEBEC...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AGAIN...BUT WITH THE NORTH
WINDS THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPERGREAT LAKES...INCREASING THE CLOUDS...AND INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-180830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
405 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT...EXCEPT 32-37 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-180830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
405 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT...EXCEPT 37-42 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-180830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
405 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT...EXCEPT 38-43 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-180830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
405 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-180830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
405 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JSL



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