Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 181940
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

...RAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUED COOL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-190830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.29-0.43 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.33-0.53 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-190830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AFTER
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.39 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-190830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.14 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.31-0.43 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......39 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 30 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.20 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.35-0.50 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.25 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JSL



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