Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 061931
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...PRODUCING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OFFERING THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE SINCE ENDED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUNDSON VALLEY REGION, LINGERING MID-LEVEL OVERCAST STILL
IS ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE AREA IS
EXPERIENCING A RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING SOME 20-25 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, THOUGH IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR HAMILTON AND HERKIMER
COUNTIES IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ALBANY CWA THIS
PERIOD. ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE CONTINUED WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO +11C THURSDAY AND
WARM EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND +13C. WITH STRONG INSOLATION, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD EASILY MIX TO THIS LEVEL. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE LACKING, LEADING TO CONTINED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWS
FOR RETURN OF MID-50S DEWPOINTS. SOME OF THE HI-RES CONVECTION
ALLOWING GUIDANCE SHOWS SPOTTY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND I`VE SHOWN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. HOWEVER, LACK OF ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND
EVIDENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP PER GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THIS PERIOD ARE ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST, MOS
GUIDANCE AND LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEATHER BEGINS TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED AND WETTER
INTO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND TRANSITIONS INTO A REGIME OF NEUTRAL TO
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. AT THE SURFACE, A SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD, BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL MID-LEVEL FLOW, IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE GFS IS
BEING A BIT TOO QUICK PUSHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THOUGH I`VE
SHOWN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WEEKEND, I THINK THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD ISN`T UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HERE TOO, GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE CREATED USING A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY/PRIOR FORECAST AND LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THOUGH MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EXTENDED, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES TURN MORE SEASONAL WITH A PROGGED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE, THOUGH I CAN`T RULE OUT MVFR AT POU DUE
TO POSSIBLE RADIATIONAL MIST OVERNIGHT.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OOZING SOUTHWARD PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW TO
MID-CLOUDS AT POU, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. REGARDING MIST
POTENTIAL AT POU, BOUNDARY- LAYER DECOUPLING AND TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOK TO BE ACHIEVED
AFTER MIDNIGHT PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT, BUT MORE OF A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW (UNDER 5 KTS) INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...

RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.

WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS


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