Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 040044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES, WARM AIR, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
830 PM EDT UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ONCE AGAIN BROUGHT SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WHICH
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
RETURN FLOW AROUND A HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A CONTINUING
WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST OVER
THE CATSKILLS.

FOR MONDAY, STILL EXPECTING A VERY WARM, BREEZY DAY AS SW FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND AROUND THE 13 C MARK GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CONCERN DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES WILL BE
DROPPING TO BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS IS FURTHER DISCUSSED IN
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE, DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS FROM THE N/W MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS IS MINIMAL AS PROFILES
OVER THE AREA WILL BE QUITE DRY ALONG WITH LACK OF FORCING. ONLY
OVER THE N/W FRINGES OF THE CWA FROM NORTHERN STEUBEN INTO YATES
COUNTIES EAST THROUGH SYRACUSE WILL THERE BE A LATE DAY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AS MAIN FRONTAL
SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, WILL STICK TO
SHOWERS FORECAST WITH ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCHES OF QPF OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT LINGERS AROUND OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN TIERS TUESDAY
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN
TIERS SOUTH, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST ALONG BOUNDARY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM AROUND SCRANTON SOUTH WHERE NAM CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE.

MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM/GFS INDICATING
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FROM AROUND THE
TWIN TIERS SOUTH WHILE THE EC PUSHES FRONT/SHOWERS SOUTH. WILL
MENTION THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT, CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM SUN UPDATE... OVERALL...A SPRING-LIKE PD STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE...WITH NEAR TO ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY MAY FORESEEN ACRS
CNY/NE PA.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...UPR-LVL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN
U.S...AS A LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO/ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. ASSOCD
SFC RIDGING ACRS THE MID-ATL STATES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WX
FROM WED NGT-FRI.

MORE QUESTIONS ARISE BY NEXT WEEKEND (SAT-SUN)...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH/SFC COLD FRNT TO OUR NW
COMES INTO PLAY...ALG WITH THE PATH/EXTENSIVENESS OF MOISTURE
BEING STEERED OUT FROM THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING CYCLONE
(TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS?) NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST.
DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN
INSERTED...THEY ARE KEPT FAIRLY LOW ATTM (SCHC/CHC VALUES).

DAILY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME
LWR 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE TAF PD. HIPRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
EAST CST THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE THRU MON. COLD FNT MVG
THRU THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE SLOWED BY THE HIGH AND SHWRS ARE NOT
XPCTD UNTIL MON NGT AT THE EARLIEST. SW FLOW DVLPG BHD THE HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-TUE...OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FINE FUELS DUE TO LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING TO BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WARRANTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL ZONES.
THIS THREAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALSO, EVEN BEFORE ANY SHOWERS ARRIVE, WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW
CRITERIA BY AROUND SUNSET MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...



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