Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 261359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE REGION. SO HAVE
UPDATED THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE CLOUDS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE
AREAS OF SUNNY SKIES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE
MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60
THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN


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