Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 062301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
AND 80S. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY NEARS THE REGION...CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 659 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPP20S
COLDER VALLEYS TO L/M 40S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES MILDER...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR A FEW COLDER SPOT LOCATIONS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS (KSLK)...THAT WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY IN CONTROL. THUS LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). DEW
POINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY (LOW-MID 30S) BUT WILL BE
OFFSET BY WARMING TEMPERATURES...SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKING AT MID 40S TO LOW 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S
IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...OPENING UP
PARTS OF THE REGION TO SOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW...
WITH WINDS PEAKING 10-15 KNOTS AT MOST...HIGHEST IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
ORGANIZE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH
IMPACT EXPECTED TO MOST OF VT/NNY. WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE
RECOVERY AND FRONTAL FEATURE NEAR-BY...SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AGAIN. DEW POINTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY LOW-MID
40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE GIVES
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT. BUT AS MENTIONED WINDS
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY 50-60F WITH A FEW 40S IN THE NEK/ADK AND
LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS..

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MOST
OF SATURDAY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 20C, RESULTING IN MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S-M80S OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MORE CLOUDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A
COOLING TREND. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M60S-M70S
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

A COASTAL LOW ABOUT THE SOUTHERN CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRAVERSE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
TERRAIN INFLUENCES AT 10 KTS OR LESS. THE LAKE BREEZE AT KPBG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, ALONG WITH MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW AT KBTV AND KMPV. BETWEEN 00Z-02Z, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. COME MID-MORNING, WINDS WILL
PICK UP GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCE AT
5-10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR
VIS/CIGS IN A PASSING SHOWER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ONE AND TEN HOUR FUELS ARE
ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND A LACK
OF PRECIPITATION. FURTHER DRYING OF THESE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE PLACE...AND WITH THESE CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. STATEWIDE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE STATE OF VERMONT UNTIL MAY 19TH...AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
STATE OF NEW YORK UNTIL MAY 15TH.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT
WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE
SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME
COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...MUCCILLI
MARINE...WFO BTV



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