Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280200
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STILL A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST OTHERWISE IT IS DRYING
OUT. CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE WEST WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ROTATE INTO THE EAST. SOME CLEARING IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. SO SOME OF THIS REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS ON
TUE TO MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

LATE WED INTO THU ANOTHER PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL MANAGE TO
DIVE DUE SOUTH RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA
WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU. WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SHRA AND LOWER TEMPS FOR THU DUE TO THE RAIN...CLOUDS AND
NORTH WINDS. PER THE LATEST MODEL PROGS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SHRA THREAT SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA THU NIGHT BUT NOT
SURE HOW MUCH OF A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE MODELS
SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE HANGING BACK OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARMER WEATHER IS FOR SURE AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY. THE POPS
ARE TOUGHER.

THE GFS HAS SOME QPF ON FRIDAY BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE AS
A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL MOVE
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. CONFIDENT FOR MONDAY
WITH A THREAT OF THUNDER. NOT SO SURE ABOUT SUNDAY...SO LEFT THE
THUNDER MENTION OUT. AT THIS TIME JUST WENT WITH CHANCE POPS BUT THE
POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. IT DOES SEEM LIKE
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS HAVE JUMPED TO VFR MOST AREAS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE EVENING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
DIP BACK TO MVFR AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NW LATER TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME MVFR FOG. WILL TRY TO CLEAR KFDY AND KTOL OUT OVERNIGHT
BUT VFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE EASTERN
SITES SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE NOW BELOW
10 KNOTS ALL AREAS AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY NW TO W FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY THE THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME THE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...STILL NOT MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ON THURSDAY A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THE GRADIENT FROM
THE EAST COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG. THE MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON
THIS...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE WINDS LOW. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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