Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 052116
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNITL CIN INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
ACTIVITY. THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED WHEN
CONSIDERING MOST RECENT LAPS SBCAPE VALUES 1500J/KG OR LESS. SCA
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING OVER THE SRN
BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE REGION (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA (DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS) TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MSA OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE AND CONTRIBUTE TO SCA CONDITIONS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 03-09Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
SIMILAR MSTR/INSTABILITY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION. WL RETAIN THE CFW FOR RIP
CURRENTS UNTIL 11Z WED CONSIDERING RECENT SWELL PERIODS/WAVE
WATCH OUTPUT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MIDLEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. A NEWLY FORMED SW-NE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BRINGING BOUTS OF DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST MEXICO THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BUT
FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES AND THE SUBTROPICAL
JET NOSING IN FROM THE WEST...MAY FIRE UP A BIT MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO IMPACTING THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
RUNS FOR MORE CONSISTENCY. OUTSIDE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM...BUT DID CUT BACK HIGHS FARTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVERAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. MODELS ARE
HINTING A LATE SEASON FRONT TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  83  74  86  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          71  83  72  86  72  /  20  20  10  20  10
LAREDO            72  88  72  92  74  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             72  86  73  88  74  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  81  74  83  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           70  86  71  88  72  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        73  85  74  88  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  81  75  83  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM


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