Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 051930
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT
VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.