Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 202334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

DEEP 984MB LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAIRLY STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CUMULUS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. BIGGER IMPACT WAS COOL AND VERY BRISK CONDITIONS
WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE/GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE ONLY IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. A VERY RAW DAY IN GENERAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES
WILL COME TO AND END AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S.

CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN AS THAT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PRETTY
DEEP MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850MB. THIS PRODUCES GUST POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING
AROUND 25 MPH. THIS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL.
WILL GIVE THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CREW MORE TIME TO ASSESS THIS. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. COOL/CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO A FEW LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

NAM/GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN CLEARING
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIE OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 MAY SEE SOME LOWER 30S. DONT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FROST POTENTIAL SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME WIND...JUST COLD BUT
PERHAPS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGE TO EMERGING VEGETATION.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A QUIET BUT REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE GFS/ECMWF STILL A BIT AT ODDS OUT THERE FOR FRIDAY AND
BEYOND...SO WENT WITH A CONSENSUS/BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW. THE
ECMWF HAS AN OVERALL WARMER LOOK FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OVER A RIDGE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEREBY PRODUCING A
DRIER/COOLER...NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERS
THE PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS
IN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL FORCING. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MODERATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WOLF


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