Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 242356 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  20   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  70  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01


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