Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 181156
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. WHILE
CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ROTATES EASTWARD. SO FAR THIS MORNING...SEVERAL RAIN GAGES ARE
REPORTING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE MIDNIGHT
WITH THIS BAND...AND RADAR ESTIMATES OF TOTALS OVER AN INCH SPAN
PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THAT SAID...THIS BAND SHOULD
BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HELPING TO
MINIMIZE TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING INSTABILITY WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST
SHEAR VALUES...SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FAVORED...AND SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN...AND THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IS NOW OUTLOOK BY
SPC. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC
INDICATING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A 5% RISK FOR TORNADOES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL INSERT THIS ADDITIONAL
CONCERN INTO THE MORNING HWO.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
WE WORK OUR WAY TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
MILD SIDE IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DID NOT NEED TO ALTER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LOW STARTS TO OPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN TROUGH IS
THROUGH THE AREA BY MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE DRY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON
MONDAY...THEN AS THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL OFF.

AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MID WEEK. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS IT IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ECMWF IS THURSDAY. HAVE STARTED A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY THAT SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SO THERE COULD BE AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES AGAIN ON FRIDAY HAVE KEPT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE CLOSES INTO A LOW AS IT MOVES OVER ON FRIDAY.
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ON
THURSDAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF NEAR KGRI
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA OR MVFR
VSBY OR CIG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COLORADO ROLL ACROSS
THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTH HELPING TO REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHIFT
THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AFT ABOUT 19/08Z. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



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