Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 040851
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
151 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A SYSTEM CROSSES
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN DROP SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A DAY OF LIMITED SIERRA CONVECTION, TODAY
LOOKS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DEEPER AND MORE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FIELD EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND RADAR EVEN SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THIS NEARLY "SUMMER TYPE" OF FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT IN A SUMMER LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE
SIERRA AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A RATHER STRONG INTRUSION OF COASTAL
ZONE AIR OCCURRED INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WILL AS THE KERN
COUNTY PORTION OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS GUSTED AS HIGH AS 40
MPH THROUGH PASSES AND THE INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR WILL CERTAIN
KEEP TODAY COOLER THAN SUNDAY IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST HOWEVER A WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN BEHIND. THE CHANGE
FROM TODAY WILL BE A MORE WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE SIERRA AND THIS
MORE STABLE AIR WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION, HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CREST. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MODELS NOW ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO FIRST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN NEVADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN TARGETED OVER THE SIERRA HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
ON THE WEEKEND AND BY SUNDAY THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END,
EVEN OVER THE SIERRA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM 19Z MON THRU 05Z TUE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-04      100:2004     58:1930     64:2013     39:1950
KFAT 05-05       99:1990     57:1921     65:1989     36:1975
KFAT 05-06      100:1987     58:1921     69:1992     41:1975

KBFL 05-04      101:2004     59:1930     70:1982     39:1893
KBFL 05-05      100:1990     61:1932     69:1909     42:1930
KBFL 05-06      104:1987     55:1921     71:1989     42:1988
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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