Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210351
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME WAS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WELL OFF THE COAST AND WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS.

A SUBTLE PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITHIN A WEAK MID LVL WAA REGIME...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS TUE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WHERE
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS IS PROGGED. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE COLD FRONT
PROVIDING A FOCUS BY AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

WED-THU...TRENDED WED PM POPS DOWN AS THE FOCUS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
INTO THU WITH STRONG MID LVL WAA PROGGED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A MORE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES ON SATURDAY. MAINTAINED HIGH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY SAT. MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY MID/LATE MORNING
TUESDAY. CUMULUS AROUND 5000-7000 FT AGL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. UNSURE ON COVERAGE
DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  72  47  64 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      41  71  45  61 /  10  20  20  20
NEWTON          42  70  45  62 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        43  71  47  63 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  73  50  66 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         39  71  42  61 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      39  72  43  61 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          39  70  42  61 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       41  71  44  61 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     44  70  49  65 /  10  20  30  30
CHANUTE         42  69  46  63 /  10  30  30  30
IOLA            42  69  45  62 /  10  30  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    43  70  48  64 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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