Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 052231
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WEDNESDAY...AND MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING AND ANY CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE FROM THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER FAR TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE... TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY COLUMN IN
THE H85-5 LAYER. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THINK A
BLEND TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS WILL WORK TONIGHT...WHICH IS A
NOTCH BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UP IN THE
AIR DEPENDING IF AND WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL ENTITY DEVELOPS AND ITS
MOVEMENT THEREAFTER. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS THAT COULD PRODUCE EITHER A LOT OF WIND AND RAIN OR VERY
LITTLE OF BOTH. PRUDENCE CALLS FOR KEEPING THE SLOWLY INCREASING
TREND OF POPS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS APPROACH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WPC GRAPHICS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND
WHAT THE LOCAL IMPACTS WILL BE. THIS UNCERTAINTY SHOULD DECREASE
ONCE DEVELOPMENT GETS UNDERWAY ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF
THE CIRCULATION GETS PERIPHERALLY SAMPLED BY FL RAOBS. THERE HAS
BEEN AN INTERESTING TREND IN 12Z GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE REGION, EVEN THE PREVIOULSY EAST-OUTLYING
ECMWF...THOUGH THAT MODEL INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS A FEW DAYS
SLOWER THAN WRF/GFS. AT THIS POINT THERE SEEMS LITTLE VALUE IN
MAKING MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. WITH A DIRECT IMPACT
SEEMING MORE POSSIBLE THAN IT WAS BEFORE ITS TEMPTING TO ZERO IN
ON A DAY WHERE HIGH POPS AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE ADVERTISED BUT THE
VAST DIFFERENCES IN TIMING PRECLUDE DOING SO AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM THE FL STATE PHASE DIAGRAMS
KEEP IT WEAKLY SYMMETRIC WARM CORE ON SOME MODELS WHILE OTHERS
BRING IT TO THE BORDER BETWEEN WARM AND COLD...THUS A HYBRID
SYSTEM APPEARS MOST LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM IS REALLY THE ONLY MAJOR
PLAYER OF THE LONG TERM...WHICH WILL OTHERWISE FEATURE SEASONABLE
TO MILD AFTERNOONS AND RELATIVELY WARM NIGHTS. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM AND SO MAY
NEED TWEAKING ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TRACK AND TIMING.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT CRE AND FLO. A CIRRUS CEILING WILL
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION...HOWEVER VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIGHT WINDS
AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAVORABLE. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH A BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING AND
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF SUB-TROPICAL LOW APPROACHING THE
TERMINALS. VFR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING EARLY THU WITH TEMPO MVFR BY
THU AFTERNOON. RAIN/MVFR/WINDS FRI WITH TEMPO IFR. SAT TEMPO
SHOWERS/MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND LOWERING
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH CHOPPY 3-4 FT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PUBLIC PART OF THE FORECAST...THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM NOW FESTERING IN THE CARIBBEAN. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE
THE INCREASING TREND OF NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
CULMINATING IN STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SAME TREND WITH SEAS WITH 2-4 FEET EARLY TOMORROW INCREASING TO 4-6
FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EXPECTING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF WHAT MAY END UP BEING A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE A SAY AS TO WHICH TYPE OF
ADVISORY/HEADLINE ENDS UP MATERIALIZING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SCA
FOR SOME SEAS AND MAYBE WINDS. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AT SOME
POINT NHC STARTS ADVISORIES AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT TROPICAL
HEADLINES. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL START TO DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS GRADUALLY IN THE BAHAMAS. ONCE IT
DOES THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD START HAVING AN EASIER TIME RESOLVING
THE TRACK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43



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