Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 210245
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1045 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON WEST WINDS. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED EAST OF ILN/S FA TODAY
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WAS FILTERING IN ON WEST WINDS. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SKIES WILL VARY FROM PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACRS THE NORTH. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO LOWS
FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY
WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHT
TOMORROW WITH A POTENT LLJ OVERHEAD. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE
INDICATING 800 MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE ALSO SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND 600
MB. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS WILL SUPPORT WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. DUE TO THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT PRODUCING SOME DEVELOPMENTAL
PCPN ACROSS PARTS OUR AREA TOWARD THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AN AXIS OF 850-700 MB DEFORMATION THAT TRIES TO
SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH WITH THIS THOUGH SO WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN MENTION TO
JUST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. WEAK CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE INITIATED OUR FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FA...AND FROST ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHTS.

SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED UP TOWARD OUR AREA ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...SOME PCPN COULD SNEAK UP INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE TAF FCST PERIOD. IN WAKE OF SFC FRONT CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BKN TO SCT VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000 AND
9000 FEET ACRS THE TAF SITES.

WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 28 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 36 KTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR






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