Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN
ZONES EARLY THIS WEEK...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY. APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOMETHING
COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE 850MB
JET SAGS INTO THAT AREA. WILL PUT SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER THESE
AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
OK FOR THE MOST PART...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO GET HUNG UP EITHER OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES OR FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA ON MONDAY...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO ERRONEOUSLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT NEARBY.
OVERALL...THE ENSEMBLES ARE WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH.

MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERING THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND THE DISSIPATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WHICH LOOK A LITTLE COOL. WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS
A CATEGORY AT THAT TIME

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO REMOVE SOME SPOTTY LOW
POPS FROM THE INITIALIZATION EARLY IN THE LONG TERM.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AMONG THE WARMEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH
80 DEGREES IN PLAY PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY. INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS
WELL AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH CU FORMATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET AS WELL AS
SOME PASSING CIRRUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
AROUND 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CU WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET...LEAVING JUST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO
HAVE SOME PRECIP ACCOMPANYING IT...WHICH MAY REACH KLAF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER WAVE IN THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS AT KLAF PRIOR TO 18Z MONDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED A VCTS
MENTION FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. CONVECTION
MAY IMPACT KHUF AND KIND LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...RYAN

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