Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 042050
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INVERTED SFC TROF...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND ON OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS OF 20Z. THIS FEATURE HAS
ASSISTED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD TONIGHT...WITH A
GENERAL DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AN UPTICK IS
LIKELY OVER THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TWD THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WITH THE MARINE DMAX...WITH THE NWD CELL MOTION
LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY SPREADING INLAND.

POPS WERE RAISED OVER EAST TX TOMORROW AS THE WAVE ENTERS A
REGION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MSTR...WITH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THAT OBSERVED TODAY.

PATTERN THEREAFTER MARKED BY A SW TO NE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EJECTING
AHEAD OF A DIGGING WRN CONUS TROF. LOW END POPS...WITH A GRADIENT
THAT GENERALLY DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST...ALONG WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL LOWS WILL RESULT.

THE TROF IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY
ERODING THE RIDGE ALOFT...THEN FINALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND FLATTENING IT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO PROG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION ON SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.

13

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHILE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  81  62  83 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  67  80  66  82 /  30  30  10  20
LFT  65  81  64  83 /  30  10  10  20
BPT  68  80  69  82 /  30  50  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$


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